Rents are climbing as apartment supply cools, while mortgage rates just notched an ~11-month low. That one-two combo shifts the rent-vs-buy equation back toward ownership—especially around Denver.
What just changed
- Rents: The median U.S. asking rent hit $1,790 in August, up 2.6% YoY—the fastest pace since 2022. The driver: fewer new apartments getting finished and fewer new projects breaking ground. Nationally, new apartment completions slowed to a 385k annualized pace in July, down ~45% from the 2024 peak. Denver–Aurora–Lakewood logged $1,887 (-0.2% MoM, +1.2% YoY). Concessions like free parking? Expect them to fade as supply tightens.
- Rates: The average 30-yr fixed sits around 6.50% per Freddie Mac (week of Sept. 4). MBA’s weekly survey shows a similar 6.49%, calling it an 11-month low and noting a jump in applications. Lower rates = more house for the same payment.
Why this matters for buyers (especially renters)
When rents rise and rates fall, the gap between paying your landlord and building your own equity narrows—fast.
Math you can feel:
- At 7.25%, a $500,000 loan runs about $3,411/mo in principal & interest.
- At 6.50%, the same loan is roughly $3,160/mo—about $250/mo less.
- Or keep the payment the same and your borrowing power jumps to roughly $540,000 (about $40k more).
(Estimates for illustration only; taxes/insurance/MI not included; rates/terms subject to change.)
Denver-area lens
Denver rents aren’t spiking like Chicago or San Jose, but they’re edging higher while new multifamily supply cools. If your lease is rolling over this fall or winter, it’s worth pressure-testing whether today’s lower rates plus potential seller credits or builder incentives could make owning competitive—especially with 2-1 buy downs or targeted permanent buy downs to lean into the current rate window.
What I’ll do for you
- Build a custom rent-vs-buy for your zip code and price point
- Model rate buydown scenarios (seller/builder-paid)
- Compare monthly and cash-to-close across options (FHA/Conventional/Jumbo/VA)
- Outline a refi playbook if rates keep easing
If you want the numbers straight—no cheerleading—reach out and I’ll run your scenario. One page, Denver-specific, and you’ll know exactly where you stand.
(Not a commitment to lend. Programs/rates/terms change and are subject to underwriting approval.)
